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John Petro

Safe Cities, Despite those Conservatives

Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute wrote an article in The Guardian a little while back called "Safe cities, successful conservatives."

The safe city that MacDonald is referring to is New York and the successful conservative she’s referring to is Rudy Giuliani. I truly agree on her first point: New York City is the safest big city in America, despite what TV and movies will tell you (can we please stop glorifying violence in our cities).

On the second point, MacDonald heaps praise on Giuliani and his police commissioner, William Bratton, for using the “conservative principles [that] saved Gotham” in order to overcome the city’s dismal record of public safety. On this point, I have to disagree. While the city made some good policing reforms during this time (such as Compstat), it also instituted some more troubling policies, such as zero-tolerance and stop-and-frisk policies that ultimately may do more harm than good. However, what saved Gotham, according to criminologist Andrew Karmen, was the end of the crack epidemic and demographic factors, such as fewer young males between the ages of 15 and 29 residing in the city.

According to MacDonald, Giuliani and Bratton refuted the idea that “crime was the unavoidable product of racism and poverty.” After throwing this idea out the window, Giuliani and Bratton were able to get down to business. After instituting Compstat, a data-driven approach to policing, and adopting the “broken windows theory” approach to policing, the city was able to defeat the criminals, sending them into retreat, and reclaiming the streets for law-abiding citizens to go about their daily business.

It’s a nice story. It’s easy to understand and has clear heroes and bad guys. Unfortunately, these things are a bit more complicated than MacDonald’s story would suggest.

First, it is unclear whether the introduction of Compstat coincided with the declines in criminal activity; that is, crime was already beginning to decline in the city before the city had rolled out these reforms. Andrew Karmen, in his book New York Murder Mystery: The true story behind the crime crash of the 1990s, explains it this way:

The violence problem did not “turn around” with the advent of Compstat; body conts were already drifting downward before their rate of decrease accelerated. Although the bulk of the drop in murders per month took place in the latter part of 1994 when new strategies were being introduced, the number of vehicle thefts, robberies, burglaries, and larcenies reported to the police tumbled too soon, before Compstat was developed.

Additionally, New York was not the only city in the US that experienced great reductions in crime during the same time period. And not all of the cities with declining crime rates instituted the same polices that New York put into place.

Whle the NYPD was dramatically racheting-up apprehensions for minor violations, San Diego’s police force was cutting back on misdemeanor arrests; yet this large California city enjoyed the same degree of relief from the oppressive burden of crime as did New York.

The introduction of Compstat was a positive development, it allowed decision makers in the NYPD to use up-to-date data to better allocate resources and take a proactive approach to identify emerging “hot spots” of criminal activity. The use of “zero tolerance” policies, however, is more problematic. Zero tolerance and stop-and-frisk policies harm relations between the police and the community and may also needlessly put individuals behind bars. These approaches are not just infringements on our basic civil liberties. There are social costs associated with locking up individuals for low-level and quality of life offenses, including the individual's future criminality (those who have served jail time are more likely to engage in violent criminal behavior) and in the impact of a criminal record on job prospects.

On a final note, MacDonald ends her piece like this:

The conservative platform for cities, then, is as follows: reducing crime through data-driven, accountable policing; a commitment to public order and cleanliness; safe, rigorous schools; efficient city services; and a welfare system geared toward self-improvement, not dependency.

That is not a conservative platform for cities, but everyone’s platform for cities. Progressives are every bit as committed to public order, good schools, public services, and the betterment of those that are worse off. However, progressives don’t support the random stopping and searching of individuals, individuals who are not found to be doing anything wrong 88 percent of the time, to achieve public order. Not just because of the infringement on civil liberties, but because it really doesn’t work. Rather, it often does more harm than good.

John Petro: Author Bio | Other Posts
Posted at 2:12 PM, May 27, 2009 in Urban Affairs
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Comments

MacDonald is a hack. She takes a crime drop that began under Dinkins/Brown and has continued under Giuliani/Bratton and Bloomberg/Kelly, and praises Giuliani for it. As evidence that Giuliani's approach is the right one, she points out that cities like Boston and San Diego had a crime drop in the 1990s but not in the 2000s; why the credit should go to Giuliani and not to Bloomberg she doesn't say.

The truth is, the Manhattan Institute is just a platform for unreconstructed racism. MacDonald apologizes for police brutality, and talks about "black crime"; Peter Huber rants about the third world, saying that "their fecundity" is the real reason CO2 emissions are rising. I'll leave it up to you to decide whether it's worse or better than the AEI's Charles Murray's belief that black people are genetically stupider than whites.

Posted by: Alon Levy | May 27, 2009 02:33 PM


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