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John Petro

The End of the Auto-Centric Lifestyle

It's not just American auto makers that are hurting; auto sales are down for all car companies, including Toyota. Some might just blame the automakers' woes on the sluggish economy. But I think that only partially explains why auto sales are down so dramatically. Looking at various tidbits of information from the past week might offer a better explanation.

The real answer is that we as a society have begun to turn away from the auto-centric lifestyle that began in earnest after World War II. The evidence so far is anecdotal, but it is beginning to mount.

First, take this press release from the U.S. Department of Transportation. "Americans drove more than 100 billion fewer miles between November 2007 and October 2008 than the same period a year earlier." This is partially related to record-high gas prices, but even in October, when prices began to drop, "Americans drove 3.5 percent less, or 8.9 billion fewer vehicle miles traveled (VMT), in October 2008 than October 2007, making it the sharpest decline of any October since 1971."

And then the quote from Transportation Secretary Mary Peters, "The fact that the trend persists even as gas prices are dropping confirms that America's travel habits are fundamentally changing." This is coming from Bush appointee Mary Peters, not the Cascade Bicycle Club.

Then there is the "Home Design Trends Survey" from the American Institute of Architects:

"The housing downturn is reshaping households’ preferences for the design of their neighborhoods and communities. Infill locations are growing in popularity, while exurban subdivisions—even with the opportunities they offer for recreational opportunities, open space, and more fully developed community plans—are losing ground because of their lack of access to public transportation and commercial services."

In places that are building new light rail lines, such as Denver, Charlotte, or Dallas, the demand for transit-oriented housing and communities is enormous. We're seeing that the market is not supplying this type of housing anywhere near enough to meet the demand.

And then there is the piece in the New York Times that says that even as New York City's population and job growth exploded in the period between 2003 and 2007, automobile traffic actually decreased by 1.4% while transit ridership increased 8.8%. People are coming to the city, but not brining their cars. I know that one of the reasons I moved DC, and then to Brooklyn, is because they are among the few places in the country that you can get around in without a car. These trends show that I'm not the only one.

More and more younger people want an urban lifestyle; a lifestyle that doesn't necessitate car ownership. Biking is hip. Driving and polluting is not. And as these people settle down and have kids, more of them are choosing to remain in the city than ever before.

We may look back on 2000 as the time when auto-centrism began to wane, when the American dream no longer necessarily meant the suburban house with the white picket fence and the two-car garage. It's still too early to tell whether these trends will hold.

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Posted at 9:42 AM, Dec 15, 2008 in Transporation
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