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Dan Morris

Education Once Meant: Insurance and Unemployment Protection

The news of Obama’s pick for education secretary has reignited the debate over the reauthorization of No Child Left Behind. Once again, we’re fixated on achievement, accountability, tests, data--everything but connecting education to history and progressive policy.

The failure comes in part from forgetting that public secondary education began as a grassroots movement and that upward mobility is the movement’s great success story.

Fortunately, two economic historians from Harvard, Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz, have filled in the narrative details that have been left out of the education debate. I am referring to their book, The Race Between Education and Technology, which some columnists have cheerfully cited, though without examining all the implications for today.

The main Goldin/Katz thesis that has David Brooks and Paul Krugman equally intrigued is this: inequality can be understood as a race between the supply of skill (education or human capital) and the demand for skill (technological change). The authors find that technological changes are not themselves responsible for the recent increase in inequality, nor were they responsible for the decrease in inequality in the early twentieth century. Inequality has been affected most not by the demand for our educated labor but by the supply of it. So stop blaming outsourcing, the Internet, globalization, they suggest: sluggish growth in our educated workforce is a homegrown problem we have to fix.

“For a good part of the twentieth century, the vast majority of parents had children whose educational attainment greatly exceeded theirs,” they observe. “Educational change between the generations then came to an abrupt standstill. An important part of the American dream--that children do better than their parents--was threatened. The slowdown in education is robbing Americans of the ability to grow strong together.”

How did we do better in the past? As historians, this is the question that Goldin and Katz are most interested in answering, and plenty can be learned from what they have to say.

Beginning about a hundred years ago, there was a sharp increase in education attainment that quickly led to a sharp decrease in inequality. It was not mandated by the federal government, there were no lobbyists involved, and the courts were focused elsewhere. (Shhh... Don't tell Margaret Spellings.)

It happened when large groups of ordinary parents mobilized after becoming convinced that the path toward a better life could not be found in factories and on farms. Parents wanted their children freed of physical labor and not all young people were willing to work on family land. Local public high schools were quickly built, and a movement was born. Crucially, it had to do with fulfilling what we now call middle-class aspirations.

“Success meant more than the ability to earn a greater income. By enabling their children to obtain more education, parents could free them from various hardships in life…. Education was also a form of insurance, allowing the more education to respond faster to economic change and thereby providing some unemployment protection.”

Flexible skills were seen as insuring and protecting people as adaptable employees. Flexibility meant transferability across occupations, industries, and business cycles. Dead-end jobs required only very narrow skills to be used on the same tasks, whereas gateway jobs required more general, portable skills to be used on a variety of tasks. This was true for blue-collar jobs and white-collar jobs. Employers of manual workers began to demand the same high-level skills that other workers learned in secondary schools. Skilled manufacturing was not about more tricks of the trade--it was about more learning.

Then as now, broadening the cognitive capacity of our young people has positive economic consequences for prosperity, mobility, and security. Narrowing that capacity, and preventing it from growing, through cheap, easy-to-adminster standardized tests is where the educational slowdown and the economic slowdown meet. So long as No Child Left Behind survives education is not a safety net because it leaves students unprepared and unskilled.

“If the skills currently demanded are produced slowly, and if the workforce is less flexible in its skill set, then growth is slowed and inequality widens,” Katz and Goldin conclude. “Those who can make the adjustments as well as those who gain the new skills are rewarded. Others are left behind.”


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Posted at 2:18 AM, Dec 19, 2008 in Education
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Comments

While education tells us a great deal about growing inequality, I strongly question the thesis that it tells the whole story. Economists Jared Bernstein and Larry Mishel raise some excellent points when they argue:

"Wage inequality is driven by a slew of factors, of which differences in education is but one. More recently, in the 2000s, the evidence shows no evidence of increasing skill demands, or at least no evidence that these demands are not being met by enough skilled workers. Instead, in recent years, it appears the inequality has largely been driven by increased concentration of income and wealth at the very top of the scale. The current inequality is much more than a simple skills story-persons like CEOs and holders of large capital assets hold a privileged position that has enabled them to steer the bulk of growth their way.

Sure, many of these persons have college degrees, but as our and others’ data show, a college degree, even an advanced degree, does not guarantee entry in this rarified club (see, for example, our analysis of recent inequality trends). In fact, our own research shows that half of the growth in wage inequality over the 1980s, and most of the growth in the 2000s, occurred within education groups, meaning that inequality’s growth is currently being driven by the gains of some college graduates relative to others with the same education credentials.

Policy makers and analysts must avoid reducing the inequality debate to a sole explanation regarding education. For any individual making a decision about their future, and for any society contemplating useful investments, education is an obvious and important area to consider. But it is not solely responsible for the growth of inequality, not over the longer term, and especially not in recent years. Thus, other policies-minimum wages, a level playing field for union organizing, health care and pension provision, work supports for low-income workers, full employment, and responding to the downsides of globalization-also need to be pursued."

Posted by: Am y Traub | December 19, 2008 10:27 AM

Amy,

Thanks for weighing in. I actually think the Bernstein/Mishel and Katz/Goldin theses are not entirely incompatible. Or to put it differently, there is a productive tension worth exploring that could help progressives develop a sharper position on the economic implications of a well-educated, highly empowered labor force today. Historically, Katz/Goldin show, educated laborers have been more likely to earn higher wages, perform higher-quality jobs, and organize and bargain on their own behalf. Of course, critical thinking skills alone do not limit corporate power, but they do help. While unions increase the bargaining-power of the lower-educated, more education puts aspiring middle-class workers on the path toward social mobility and job security. Pushing for stronger unions and stronger schools should thus be part of the same policy agenda.

We’ve lost ground since the 1970s that needs to be recovered. Here Katz/Goldin are closer to Bernstein/Mishel. In the early 1970s, they write, many unions whose members did not have college degrees had “wage contracts that were fully indexed to inflation and geared to provide real wage increases that tracked expected and national productivity growth. Union settlements in the late 1970s were not yet adjusted to slower productivity growth and, in consequence, they led to a relative increase in the wages of non-college workers.” But things quickly worsened for lower-educated workers in the 1980s under Reagan, they acknowledge—the power of unions severely declined, as did the real value of the federal minimum wage. Better employment prospects for struggling workers today require better education and better workplace organization, among other things.

Posted by: Dan Morris | December 19, 2008 12:03 PM

Dan, I question two things in your description of American education history. First, you say that the rise of secondary education in the first half of the 20th century was based on grassroots development; didn't the federal government in fact mandate free universal public education?

And second, the point that "Educational change between the generations then came to an abrupt standstill" is not true. Education levels are still increasing - for instance, the percentage of adult Americans with college degrees rose from 11 in 1970 to 24 in 2004. The difference is that they're increasing more slowly, especially when compared with European and East Asian education levels. Part of what made the US by far the richest country in the world in the 1950s is that its education system was better and more accessible than that of any other country. Since then, the US has improved, but first Europe and then East Asia improved much faster.

In the US, college costs an average of $4,000 per year, in Germany €1,000. In the US, the most prestigious public universities (Berkeley and UCLA) cost $9,000 a year in-state and $25,000 out of state; in France, they cost €1,400. Needless to say, France and Germany are more socially mobile than the US. The one country in Europe that isn't, Britain, is the one where the best universities have the same astronomical tuition as in the US.

Posted by: Alon Levy | December 19, 2008 01:51 PM

Alon,

I would expect nothing less from you. Let me address your concerns seriatim.

1. The federal government mandated universal education on a mass scale *only* after mobilization and pressure from below. You simply can't bracket the grassroots on this.

2. The pace of educational attainment can change even as more people are educated.
The supply of skill has gone through vicissitudes over the years. But Katz and Goldin (remember: I'm rehearsing *their* views) do make a detailed case for a more recent educational slowdown occurring in tandem with lagging productivity and wage premiums.

3. The US education system was for a long time the best of any industrialized nation. The historical facts are unambiguous here, and on this we agree. But it's important to understand where our educational greatness came from. Top-down bureaucratic policy? Wrong answer! It was ordinary people who worked together to make it great and less elitist than the European model. Here's the relevant Katz/Goldin passage for you:

"The public high school was recreated in the early 1900s to be a quintessentially American institution: open, forgiving, gender neutral, practical but academic, universal, and often egalitarian. It was reinvented in a way that moved it away from its nineteenth-century elitist European origins." You may want to read the book...!

Posted by: Dan Morris | December 19, 2008 02:50 PM

There are still high paying jobs on certain job sites. Here's the 3 best chosen by About.com career editor -

www.linkedin.com (professional networking)
www.careerbuilder.com (keyword job search)
www.realmatch.com (matches jobs based on skills)

good luck to those looking.

Posted by: richard | December 20, 2008 09:04 AM

Dan, I'll definitely look for that book in the stores around here.

Posted by: Alon Levy | December 20, 2008 06:33 PM


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